The demographic situation the world faces is unprecedented and unparalleled in modern history. All the deaths of the past few centuries warfare were blips on the radar compared to what is taking place now. Given the infinite growth economic model, the situation is beyond repair and no repair will be attempted. The only goal is extension of the current model with its clear winners and losers.
- C. Hamilton
To make my point, I roughly split the global population into equal halves. The half of the world inhabiting consumer nations versus the other half in non-consumer nations (previously detailed HERE). Consumer nations have per capita gross national incomes above $4,000 annually or an average of $16,000. Non-consumer nations have gross national incomes below $4,000 annually or average incomes of $1,600 per capita. Given the groups are 3.9 billion (consumers) and 3.8 billion (non-consumers) and the poor have incomes 1/10th that of consumer nations…the fact that the consumer nations consume 85% to 90% of global energy and exports shouldn’t be a surprise. Consumer nations have nearly all the income, savings, and access to credit. From an economic standpoint, the non-consumer nations dominate and the non-consumer nations may as well be on Mars.
Two quick charts and then some themes…
Chart below are consumer nations annual change in 0 to 65 year-olds versus annual change in 65+ year-olds, plus the Federal Funds Rate. Under 65 year-old population growth will cease by 2023 (if not sooner) and turn to large declines indefinitely thereafter. The annual growth of 65+ year-olds has has been accelerating since 2008 and won’t hit peak growth until around 2035.
Chart below are non-consumer nations annual change in under 65 versus 65+, and Federal Funds Rate. Under 65 year-old annual population growth has ceased increasing and is in the process of rolling over to growth of “just” 35 million by 2050. Non-consumer 65+ year-old population growth is rising and estimated to continue accelerating through 2050. …