What the state is hiding about the coronavirus outbreak

Opinion: Investigation of factual data from around the world and mathematical projections show the government assertion that it saved us from a terrible plague is nothing more than illusion, while they keep the true facts about the timeline of contagion to themselves

  • Doron Lancet

Epidemiology is a precise science, just like mathematics and physics, it has rules, equations, and graphs. It is interesting to note that the equations describing the spread of a disease are the same as those describing the progress of a chemical reaction.

So, it is not surprising that during the coronavirus crisis we were seeing chemists, physicists and mathematicians advising doctors and politicians on how best to deal with the virus’ spread. And yet, it is disappointing to see that amid the equations and isolation measures, a severe disconnect existed between the exact science and the decision-makers because of distortions in description and analysis of the facts.Let’s begin with the term “exponential growth”: This is a situation in which for example one patient infects another patient per day (a daily increase of 100%). If this infection rate remains unchanged, on the tenth day we would have 1,024 patients, and by the 20th day, about one million patients. This would be a doomsday scenario. In Israel, we were told that this terrible fate was avoided because of the isolation measures imposed by the Ministry of Health. Well, that is imprecise to say the least.

Analysis of coronavirus growth data identifies a common trend throughout all countries infected by the virus, representing a wide range of population size and social distancing measures. In Turkey, the virus’ daily growth was 87% initially and dropped to 2% after 44 days. Israel dropped from 30% daily growth to 1% in 40 days; Sweden dropped from 40% to 3% in 54 days; Belarus dropped from 25% to 4% in 43 days. The last two notoriously took very minimal steps of social distancing and isolation. …



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